The NBER, the official dater of when US recessions begin and end, met today. Pre-meeting leaks said that the group of economists will hold off declaring that the US recession is over. Yes, GDP has grown for at least two quarters, but other measures, like employment and consumer confidence, aren't looking so good.
What does this mean for Mexico? It's a reminder that the growth rate of US industrial production matters more to Mexico than the growth of US GDP. Fortunately for Mexico, the US industrial production index hit bottom last June and has grown every month since. Even so, the February industrial production index was still below its December 2008 level. In Mexico, industrial production began to rose (versus the previous month) September - December, dipped in January, and rose 0.59% in February, a month in which US industrial production rose 0.1%.
lunes, 12 de abril de 2010
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