lunes, 20 de septiembre de 2010

The US recession ended 15 months ago; is another in the works?

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the body responsible for dating recessions, announced that the US recession that started in December 2007 ended in June 2009. The 18 month recession is the longest since World War II. The prior post-war record was 16 months (the 1973-1975 and 1981-1982 recessions). The NBER committee "did not conclude that economic conditions since that month [June 2009] have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity."

That the recession ended over a year ago doesn't guarantee sustained growth: the danger now is that the US recovery could turn into a double dip recession.

The US recovery has driven growth in Mexico this year. If US growth slows or turns negative, Mexico will fell the fallout -- through its manufactured exports, remittances, and incoming tourism.

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