Glass half empty or glass half full?

Mexico's GDP grew 5.3% (year over year) in the third quarter, well below the second quarter's 7.6% rate but above expectations. The second quarter rate benefitted from the "base effect": the economy was in such bad shape in the second quarter of 2009 (-9.6% versus the second quarter of 2008) that the year over year comparison looked good with any growth. In the third quarter of last year, GDP contracted "only" 5.5%. So, is the glass half empty or half full? It looks fuller to me.

If, as seems quite feasible, GDP grows 3.0% year over year in the fourth quarter, the growth rate for the year will be 5.1%. The flip side of this year's good news is that next year's growth rate will be lower -- we'll be measuring it against a higher base.